I assume that most of you do not need to hear my reasons for supporting Barack Obama to have many very good ones of your own. But as an old campaigner, let me post on a different topic: why it will take a landslide.
If we could trust that this election would be unlike those we have endured since 2000, that voter access would be fair and reasonable, and that votes would be accurately and honestly counted, then Obama supporters could take at least as much confidence as hope into the stretch drive. The numbers are that good. But although a real landslide is in the making, the unfortunate (and inconvenient) truth is that for Obama to win at all, a landslide is what it will take.
Republican voter suppression tactics have disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of legitimately qualified voters in past elections, and more of the same is happening right now. Under the oxymoronic Help America Vote Act, many of these disenrollment practices have metastasized. For just one recent example, 30,000 newly registered folks in swing state Colorado have been purged based on a mail confirmation tactic that almost certainly violates the Voting Rights Act.
There are many ways voter participation is suppressed, but one of the most effective is the simple technique of ensuring that the waiting lines at the polls are so long that many get discouraged and give up. With turnout in the most democratic precincts expected to be at record levels, the delays caused by too few polling places, unreliable machines, ill-trained poll workers, and swarms of Republican operatives challenging as many voters as they can will be daunting.
Not only do we have to overcome this kind of suppression, we also have to overwhelm the fraudulent counts generated by paperless voting machines across the country. The evidence (for example, the pro Bush disparity between exit polls and the machine count in every key swing state in 2004) that the last presidential election was stolen is overwhelming. Clearly, the opportunity and motive to perpetrate the same crime is no less today. Already, early voting accounts from places like West Virginia testify to touch screens flipping intended votes away from Obama and into McCain or third party candidates.
So, without even factoring in the Bradley effect of racism hidden within polling data (which a consensus of pollsters might put at about 6%), we have our work still very much cut out for us if we are to elect the Obama/Biden ticket.
But there are other good reasons to keep on working to do all that we can. We are movement building, and regardless of outcome, that will stand us in good stead. In a worst case scenario, we suffer another fraudulent election outcome and “lose.” In that case, an overwhelmingly strong progressive movement will be an utter necessity to give us any chance to set things right. The bigger the pre-election polls and election day exit polling margins for Obama, the more obvious the theft. And the bigger the outcry for investigations, recounts and, if need be, a new election, the better our chances to rectify the result.
In a best case scenario, we win. But in order to effect real change, more than holding the White House is needed. We need to win the post election interpretation of the result, that it was a decisive rejection of the Republican ideology of war, plutocracy and tyranny, and a mandate for peaceful relations, progressive tax and budget priorities and the rule of law. We need to press the Congress and the White House to adopt the policies that benefit our families and our future. And we will need to carry this work forward while confronted with the same impediments to progress that have been ascendant for a generation.
All of this will be difficult. It just might take a landslide.